VO2 max drops by roughly 10% per decade of life; starting with a high VO2 max and maintaining cardiorespiratory fitness protects a functional reserve that otherwise erodes with age.

holds up

The age-related decline in VO2 max (on the order of 8-10% per decade after age 25-30 without sustained training) is well documented in the cardiorespiratory-aging literature…

noli's read

The age-related decline in VO2 max (on the order of 8-10% per decade after age 25-30 without sustained training) is well documented in the cardiorespiratory-aging literature (e.g., data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging). The threshold cited (17.5 ml/kg/min as a minimum for daily-living activities) is a benchmark used in cardiac rehabilitation, consistent with that literature. Combined with the mortality data (the fittest people have several-times lower death risk), the idea that 'starting high protects you longer' is a reasonable conclusion, even though the post doesn't cite a specific source. The message is accurate and well calibrated, without exaggeration.

the sources

1Mandsager K, Harb S, Cremer P, Phelan D, Nissen SE, Jaber W 2018

Claimed by Dr Arvind Bhateja (Doc AB). Noli grades the claim, never the person.

Decoded by Noli · August 3, 2026 · the original post

What the graded evidence says

Evidence: B

Linked to, not proven to cause.

Effect: all-cause mortality by cardiorespiratory fitness (treadmill METs) — elite vs low fitness adjusted HR 0.20 (95% CI 0.16-0.24); mortality inversely proportional to fitness with no upper limit of benefit; n=122,007
Measured on: adults referred for exercise treadmill testing (single large health system)

The fitness-mortality link is observational and drawn from patients referred for treadmill testing, so it shows strong association, not proof of cause. Dramatic comparisons (e.g. 'more dangerous than smoking') are rhetorical, not precise.

Dr Arvind Bhateja (Doc AB) in the Register1 claims gradedSee their record →