The community suggests that a sudden increase in the distance of a single long run is a much more significant injury risk factor than total weekly volume or traditional load ratios.

noli's read

This advice is based on an observational cohort study of Garmin users (Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport), suggesting that exceeding 110% of the longest run from the previous 30 days is a robust risk indicator. Scientifically, this finding is interesting because it challenges the exclusive use of the Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio (ACWR), which is the subject of intense debate in sports literature: while the principle of gradual progression is validated by numerous meta-analyses on injury prevention, the predictive efficacy of the ACWR is considered increasingly controversial and sometimes overestimated. It is true that sudden changes in intensity or volume are catalysts for injury, but the idea that a single measure (the long run) is sufficient to predict risk is a simplification, as the data often omit crucial factors such as sleep, stress, or personal history. The community generally agrees on the validity of the cautious approach, although some members point out significant selection biases in the cited study (high attrition rate).

the sources

1. 1Gabbett TJ 2016
2. 2Carey DL, Blanch P, Ong KL, Crossley KM, Crow J, Morris ME 2016
3. 3r/running